Thursday, 31 January 2008

UFC 81 - Playing the odds

I'm not much of a gambler by nature as I tend to avoid risks but betting on MMA cards is becoming popular so why not jump in with some virtual dollars. I'm going to give myself £100 to bet on the outcome of the UFC 81 card. Let's take a look at the fights and the best odds available.

Tim Sylvia +145 (S)
Antonio Rodrigo Nogueira -115 (b)

Frank Mir +130 (S)
Brock Lesnar -150 (b,B)

Jeremy Horn +215 (S)
Nate Marquardt -225 (b)

Ricardo Almeida
Alan Belcher
*Belcher's out of this one and there aren't odds yet available on his replacement.

Gleison Tibau +325 (B)
Tyson Griffin -420 (S)

Kyle Bradley +500 (B)
Chris Lytle -600 (b,S)

Marvin Eastman +180 (b,B)
Terry Martin -220 (b)

Tim Boetsch +210 (b)
David Heath -235 (S)

Rob Emerson +220 (B)
Keita Nakamura -255 (S)

Odds-wise, I like Sylvia over Nog and Mir over Lesnar in the main events. I think Marquardt will have too much for Horn but those aren't bad numbers for a punt on Horn. Down the card I think a sprinkle on Tibau and Eastman are worth it at those odds. The problem with the undercard is that I must admit to having little knowledge of the skills of the fighters. Octagon newcomers don't tend to fair very well on their debuts but I can't help but throw something on Bradley at +500 even though Lytle's the likely winner.

So my bets:
£30 Sylvia
£20 Mir
£10 Horn
£10 Tibau
£10 Bradley
£10 Eastman
£10 Boetsch

I'll back the underdogs all the way and on this card I think that Sylvia is the best value underdog with his ability to take a decision victory over Nogueira. Is this a good betting strategy? I don't know, I'm new to this ;-)

Notes on abbreviations:
B = BetUS
b = bodog
S = Sportbet

1 Comment:

Dinamo said...

I'm still feeling amped after watching the card and seeing Mir kneebar Lesnar - totally awesome stuff! And while he wasn't my betting pick in the title fight, I was really pleased to see Nogueira use his bjj skills to such supreme effect in his come-from-behind win against Tim Sylvia.

Overall, I've done pretty well as my underdog picks came out and performed. Okay so I lost my big bet on Sylvia but my second pick of Mir was a good choice. Looking again at my picks, I thought I'd gone for Emerson to win - and was only rooting for him because of that - so overall I score:

Mir 20@+130 - gain 46
Eastman 10@+180 - gain 18
Boetsch 10@+210 - gain 21

That gives me 125 - an improvement of 25. I'd take that over bank interest of 5% per year!