The Big Comeback

Continuing on with the previous statistical analysis of fighters from TUF, I turn my attention to the fighters from Season 4: The Comeback. As we previously saw, fighters from this season have the worst win-loss record of those in all of the seasons (in aggregate). Here we compare the UFC fortunes of fighters both before and after the show aired. The table below summarises their record, first overall, then pre-TUF4, then Post-TUF4 and then with results from the season finale removed (when 14 of the fighters fought each other). For quick identification, table elements are colour-coded to highlight the perfect records (1.000=dark green), winning records (better than 0.500=green), neutral records (0.500=yellow), losing records (less than 0.500=orange) and complete losses (0.0=dark red).

Fighter	UFC Record	Pre-TUF	Post-TUF	Minus Season Finale	Age
Edwin DeWees	0.00 (3)	0.00 (2)	0.00 (1)	(0)	25
Pete Sell	0.20 (5)	0.50 (2)	0.00 (3)	0.00 (2)	25
Jeremy Jackson	0.00 (2)	0.00 (1)	0.00 (1)	(0)	27
Charles McCarthy	0.50 (2)	0.00 (1)	1.00 (1)	(0)	27
Patrick Côté	0.43 (7)	0.00 (3)	0.75 (4)	1.00 (3)	27
Scott Smith	0.25 (4)	0.00 (1)	0.33 (3)	0.00 (2)	28
Rich Clementi	0.50 (6)	0.00 (1)	0.60 (5)	0.75 (4)	30
Din Thomas	0.63 (8)	0.50 (4)	0.75 (4)	0.67 (3)	31
Chris Lytle	0.36 (11)	0.33 (6)	0.40 (5)	0.50 (4)	33
Matt Serra	0.60 (10)	0.50 (8)	1.00 (2)	1.00 (1)	33
Mikey Burnett	0.67 (3)	0.67 (3)	(0)	(0)	33
Gideon Ray	0.00 (3)	0.00 (2)	0.00 (1)	(0)	34
Travis Lutter	0.40 (5)	0.33 (3)	0.50 (2)	0.00 (1)	34
Shonie Carter	0.50 (6)	0.60 (5)	0.00 (1)	0.00 (1)	35
Jorge Rivera	0.50 (8)	0.40 (5)	0.67 (3)	0.50 (2)	35
Pete Spratt	0.43 (7)	0.50 (4)	0.33 (3)	0.00 (2)	37
Overall	0.42 (90)	0.37 (51)	0.49 (39)	0.48 (25)

who have a better As expected, given that this season has such an overall low winning percentage, there are few fighters with better than 0.500 records. Overall, only Din Thomas, Matt Serra and Mikey Burnett fall into this category. Of these three, Mikey Burnett didn't fight after TUF4 (where his performance didn't suggest that he'd do well), but both Thomas and Serra improved from even records to be positive. It is only these two fighters, along with Rich Clementi and Patrick Côtéthan evens record since the TUF4 season finale (though Serra has only had one fight, what a fight it was to win!). It appears that these four fighters have best taken the opportunity that appearing on TUF4 provided, to improve their competitiveness, while Chris Lytle and Jorge Rivera are also doing but to a much more marginal degree - they've improved to evens records at present.

What is really interesting though is the ages of the fighters that have been more successful. It's the fighters who are now aged 27-33 who are performing best - those younger have fallen by the wayside, has have those who are older (with the exception of Rivera). This suggests that the currently successful fighters have (1) the necessary mental, physical and emotional maturity that some of the younger fighters may not have, (2) the drive and ambition that some of the older fighters lack, and (3) the ability to add new dimensions to their game that the older, more one-dimensional fighters lack. It's on that basis that I think Charles McCarthy in his return to the Octagon at UFC83 against Michael Bisping might do much better than most predict.