UFC 81 - Playing the odds

I'm not much of a gambler by nature as I tend to avoid risks but betting on MMA cards is becoming popular so why not jump in with some virtual dollars. I'm going to give myself £100 to bet on the outcome of the UFC 81 card. Let's take a look at the fights and the best odds available.

Tim Sylvia +145 (S)
Antonio Rodrigo Nogueira -115 (b)

Frank Mir +130 (S)
Brock Lesnar -150 (b,B)

Jeremy Horn +215 (S)
Nate Marquardt -225 (b)

Ricardo Almeida
Alan Belcher
*Belcher's out of this one and there aren't odds yet available on his replacement.

Gleison Tibau +325 (B)
Tyson Griffin -420 (S)

Kyle Bradley +500 (B)
Chris Lytle -600 (b,S)

Marvin Eastman +180 (b,B)
Terry Martin -220 (b)

Tim Boetsch +210 (b)
David Heath -235 (S)

Rob Emerson +220 (B)
Keita Nakamura -255 (S)


Odds-wise, I like Sylvia over Nog and Mir over Lesnar in the main events. I think Marquardt will have too much for Horn but those aren't bad numbers for a punt on Horn. Down the card I think a sprinkle on Tibau and Eastman are worth it at those odds. The problem with the undercard is that I must admit to having little knowledge of the skills of the fighters. Octagon newcomers don't tend to fair very well on their debuts but I can't help but throw something on Bradley at +500 even though Lytle's the likely winner.

So my bets:
£30 Sylvia
£20 Mir
£10 Horn
£10 Tibau
£10 Bradley
£10 Eastman
£10 Boetsch

I'll back the underdogs all the way and on this card I think that Sylvia is the best value underdog with his ability to take a decision victory over Nogueira. Is this a good betting strategy? I don't know, I'm new to this ;-)

Notes on abbreviations:
B = BetUS
b = bodog
S = Sportbet

Who are "The Ultimate Fighters"?

If you search the blogosphere you'll find enough mma blogs to keep you entertained right through the working day. Some offer news and gossip about scheduled bouts, most give reports on previous cards and plenty just give their opinions about who they think will win upcoming bouts. Here are the aggregated results, which I hope are self-explanatory:

	Vs TUF1	Vs TUF2	Vs TUF3	Vs TUF4	Vs TUF5
TUF1	(12)	0.33 (6)	0.5 (2)	1.0 (9)	- (0)
TUF2	0.67 (6)	(8)	0.8 (5)	0.67 (3)	1.0 (1)
TUF3	0.5 (2)	0.2 (5)	(7)	0.25 (4)	- (0)
TUF4	0 (9)	0.33 (3)	0.75 (4)	(10)	- (0)
TUF5	- (0)	0 (1)	- (0)	- (0)	(4)

	UFC Record	UFC Record (minus TUFx fights)	Vs all TUF	UFC Record (minus all TUF fights)
TUF1	0.649 (65)	0.717 (53)	0.706 (17)	0.722 (36)
TUF2	0.565 (60)	0.596 (52)	0.733 (15)	0.541 (37)
TUF3	0.462 (32)	0.440 (25)	0.273 (11)	0.571 (14)
TUF4	0.420 (78)	0.397 (68)	0.25 (16)	0.442 (52)
TUF5	0.652 (19)	0.733 (15)	0 (1)	0.786 (14)

A number of interesting points become apparent:

• So far TUF5 has the best fighter record - although this is a small sample and I expect these figures to change in the coming months as the TUF5 fighters face more difficult challenges.
• Prior to TUF5, the winning percentage of TUF fighters had decreased steadily from the first season to the fourth (against all fighters except those on the same season of the show).
• Fighters from TUF1 and TUF2 have far superior records against other TUF fighters than those fighters from TUF3 and TUF4.
• TUF1 season fighters have beaten TUF4 fighters on all 9 occasions they have fought.

More thoughts and in-depth analysis later.