UFC Lightweight Tournament

I was thinking about the year-spanning tournaments that K-1 have and Pride used to have and was wondering if we might ever see anything like it in the UFC. Chances are slim that they'd create events specifically for a tournament but how about incorporating the tournaments into fight cards, perhaps in such a way to establish a number one contender to the title. Thinking about the weight classes as they are at present, the light heavyweight and the lightweights appear to show the most promise for this scenario given that they appear to have the flattest contender structures in the UFC.

But having a light heavyweight tournament doesn't make a lot of sense when some of the fighters there are the biggest ppv draws and you want to use their brands to establish cards when necessary. In contrast, the lightweights are currently much lower profile and are still establishing their brands, despite their record of exciting bouts. So who would you include in a tournament of 16 fighters if you were going to establish a #1 contender to BJ Penn? Well first the top-level exclusions - Joe Stevenson because they just met at UFC80, Sean Sherk because he's fighting Penn at UFC84 and Roger Huerta because he's taking time off to concentrate on studies. But excluding them still leaves a huge list of potential entrants: Aurelio, Bocek, Clementi, Danzig, Diaz, Edgar, Fisher, Florian, Gamburyan, Griffin, Guida, Lauzon, Maynard, Miller, Pellegrino, Stephens, Stout, Tavares, Tibau, Thomas is already 20!

But look at those names closely and you see that a number of fighters are booked for UFN13 and UFC83. At UFN 13 we have the headline of Florian-Lauzon, plus Edgar-Maynard, Aurelio-Fisher, Guida-Schiavo and Thomas-Neer. Then at UFC83, Clementi-Stout and Bocek-Danzig. Is there something going on that we don't know about; has Joe Silva actually set up a tournament for #1 contender that we don't know about? If I was designing the tournament I'd include 6 of those bouts, choosing to exclude the Thomas-Neer fight on the basis of Neer's track record.

So if those 6 fights are part of a tourney, who might be in the other 2 (which I'd expect to see at UFC84)? Well of the remaining 20, that leaves Diaz, Gamburyan, Griffin, Miller, Pellegrino, Stephens, Tavares and Tibau. Let's stretch our tournament theory even further and say that there have already been entry fights into the tournament - the recent fights including these fighters at UFC81, Griffin-Tibau, and UFN12 Miller-Stephens, to eliminate Tibau and Miller. Griffin is at the top of the pile of these fighters and must be included. Also, given their status from TUF5, Diaz and Gamburyan must be included. That leaves a tough call between Pellegrino, Stephens and Tavares. Of those I've got to pick Tavares as the best call (maybe Stephens-Miller wasn't an eliminator after all?).

Leaving the four of Diaz, Gamburyan, Griffin and Tavares, there's a potentially intriguing rematch between the TUF5 finalists, with Gamburyan given the chance to make up for his freak loss on that occasion. The problem with this rematch, aside from it being too early to make anything of, is that it'd also leave Griffin and Tavares rematching their UFC76 fight. Instead I'll pick Diaz-Tavares in a bjj battle and Gamburyan-Griffin to grapple and bang.

So that gives us the 8 fights: Florian-Lauzon, Edgar-Maynard, Aurelio-Fisher, Guida-Schiavo, Clementi-Stout, Bocek-Danzig, Diaz-Tavares and Gamburyan-Griffin. To continue the speculation, I'll pick Florian, Edgar, Fisher, Guida, Clementi, Danzig, Tavares and Griffin to emerge victorious. Then in the quarters we'll get match-ups along the lines of Griffin-Fisher, Edgar-Guida, Florian-Tavares and Danzig-Clementi. Griffin, Edgar, Tavares and Danzig win through, Griffin then beats Danzig and Tavares submits Edgar to set up a Griffin-Tavares rematch for #1 contender.

Tavares to win, then meet BJ Penn in a championship bout, which Tavares wins sometime in the second quarter of '09.

Pure fantasy, eh?

The TUFfest Teams

While hardly the stuff of headlines, Rob Emerson's split decision victory over Keita Nakamura at UFC 81 continued the magnificent record of fighters from TUF5. In a recent post I examined the records of the cohorts of fighters from each season of TUF. Emerson's victory led me to wonder how the overall records of fighters from Team Penn and Team Pulver compared. So I've looked at the statistics for the first five seasons, comparing the records of fighters from each of the teams.

	Team	Overall record	Overall win %	Record minus TUFx fights	Minus TUFx win %
1	Liddell	27-14	65.85	20-8	71.43
	Couture	23-13	63.89	18-7	72.00
2	Hughes	16-15	51.61	11-11	50.00
	Franklin	23-14	60.53	20-10	64.52
3	Ortiz	12-11	52.17	6-7	46.15
	Shamrock	6-10	37.50	5-7	41.67
4	No Love	15-21	41.67	11-18	37.93
	Mojo	22-30	42.31	16-23	41.03
5	Penn	9-4	69.23	7-3	70.00
	Pulver	7-4	63.64	5-1	83.33

So to answer my initial thoughts about Penn vs Pulver is that Team Pulver has the better win percentage to date (excluding fights just between TUF5 fighters, ie from the season finale fight night), blemished only by Cole Miller's recent loss at Fight Night 12. However, Team Penn's record also includes 3 fights from before the show - Lauzon's shock win over Pulver and losses by Wiman and Ruediger. Remove them from the record and Team Penn has an near identical post-show record of 6-1. It's going to take a little time to see which of these teams' fighters have longevity in the UFC.

What's interesting to examine is not the actually records themselves but the comparison between the two head coaches on each season. My opinion would be that the coaches with the better records on the show demonstrated an overall ability to identify talent and hear. I'm not entirely sure how much fighters would improve their skills during the show, but I'd say that the coaches also played a factor in encouraging the improvement of existing talent.

Chuck and Randy's teams have near identical (and impressive) records from the first season. But there are significant differences in the records of teams in the second and third seasons. In TUF2, Team Franklin has a significantly superior record against Team Hughes - basically because Team Franklin included 3 standouts (Keith Jardine, Rashad Evans and Marcus Davis) against 1 in Team Hughes (Joe Stevenson). [It's notably that 3/4 of these standouts have dropped down a division from their TUF weight division and that both Jardine and Evans are part of Team Jackson].

Meanwhile in TUF3, the most disappointing season to date (in terms of records), Team Ortiz has performed better than Team Shamrock. The winners of both weight divisions were from Team Ortiz (Michael Bisping and Kendall Grove) and while Grove retains a positive 3-2 record, it's only Bisping (4-1) and Matt Hamill (3-1) that have decent UFC records.

Finally, season 4 needs further analysis - the records include fights both from before and after the show so in a future post I'll look at the effect of appearing on the show on the fighters' records.

UFC 81 - Playing the odds

I'm not much of a gambler by nature as I tend to avoid risks but betting on MMA cards is becoming popular so why not jump in with some virtual dollars. I'm going to give myself £100 to bet on the outcome of the UFC 81 card. Let's take a look at the fights and the best odds available.

Tim Sylvia +145 (S)
Antonio Rodrigo Nogueira -115 (b)

Frank Mir +130 (S)
Brock Lesnar -150 (b,B)

Jeremy Horn +215 (S)
Nate Marquardt -225 (b)

Ricardo Almeida
Alan Belcher
*Belcher's out of this one and there aren't odds yet available on his replacement.

Gleison Tibau +325 (B)
Tyson Griffin -420 (S)

Kyle Bradley +500 (B)
Chris Lytle -600 (b,S)

Marvin Eastman +180 (b,B)
Terry Martin -220 (b)

Tim Boetsch +210 (b)
David Heath -235 (S)

Rob Emerson +220 (B)
Keita Nakamura -255 (S)


Odds-wise, I like Sylvia over Nog and Mir over Lesnar in the main events. I think Marquardt will have too much for Horn but those aren't bad numbers for a punt on Horn. Down the card I think a sprinkle on Tibau and Eastman are worth it at those odds. The problem with the undercard is that I must admit to having little knowledge of the skills of the fighters. Octagon newcomers don't tend to fair very well on their debuts but I can't help but throw something on Bradley at +500 even though Lytle's the likely winner.

So my bets:
£30 Sylvia
£20 Mir
£10 Horn
£10 Tibau
£10 Bradley
£10 Eastman
£10 Boetsch

I'll back the underdogs all the way and on this card I think that Sylvia is the best value underdog with his ability to take a decision victory over Nogueira. Is this a good betting strategy? I don't know, I'm new to this ;-)

Notes on abbreviations:
B = BetUS
b = bodog
S = Sportbet

Who are "The Ultimate Fighters"?

If you search the blogosphere you'll find enough mma blogs to keep you entertained right through the working day. Some offer news and gossip about scheduled bouts, most give reports on previous cards and plenty just give their opinions about who they think will win upcoming bouts. Here are the aggregated results, which I hope are self-explanatory:

	Vs TUF1	Vs TUF2	Vs TUF3	Vs TUF4	Vs TUF5
TUF1	(12)	0.33 (6)	0.5 (2)	1.0 (9)	- (0)
TUF2	0.67 (6)	(8)	0.8 (5)	0.67 (3)	1.0 (1)
TUF3	0.5 (2)	0.2 (5)	(7)	0.25 (4)	- (0)
TUF4	0 (9)	0.33 (3)	0.75 (4)	(10)	- (0)
TUF5	- (0)	0 (1)	- (0)	- (0)	(4)

	UFC Record	UFC Record (minus TUFx fights)	Vs all TUF	UFC Record (minus all TUF fights)
TUF1	0.649 (65)	0.717 (53)	0.706 (17)	0.722 (36)
TUF2	0.565 (60)	0.596 (52)	0.733 (15)	0.541 (37)
TUF3	0.462 (32)	0.440 (25)	0.273 (11)	0.571 (14)
TUF4	0.420 (78)	0.397 (68)	0.25 (16)	0.442 (52)
TUF5	0.652 (19)	0.733 (15)	0 (1)	0.786 (14)

A number of interesting points become apparent:

• So far TUF5 has the best fighter record - although this is a small sample and I expect these figures to change in the coming months as the TUF5 fighters face more difficult challenges.
• Prior to TUF5, the winning percentage of TUF fighters had decreased steadily from the first season to the fourth (against all fighters except those on the same season of the show).
• Fighters from TUF1 and TUF2 have far superior records against other TUF fighters than those fighters from TUF3 and TUF4.
• TUF1 season fighters have beaten TUF4 fighters on all 9 occasions they have fought.

More thoughts and in-depth analysis later.

Post-UFC80 Analysis

To start off the weekend, Dorsia picked me up from the railway station on Friday afternoon and after a tasty Chinese buffet at Lau's on Stowell Street, we went along for the weigh-ins. We got there early to get good seats but the wait was worth it as our anticipation of seeing the fighters in the flesh for the first time grew. The build-up was great as UFC Countdown was broadcast on the big screens around the arena. Then when it came to the weigh-ins themselves they seemed to be over in a flash. It was a good taste of what was to come – though not being part of the UFC fan club meant that we weren’t right up next to the action. As we were waiting we’d see some of the fan club members posing for photos with faces familiar to us – Bruce Buffer, Mike Goldberg, Mario Yamazaki. It was hard to be believe that they and the UFC were actually in Newcastle!

Fastforward to Saturday night and the card kicked off at 6pm. It was an amazing night of action as there were spectacular results across the board – 7 of the fights were stoppages, with 5 of those being ko/tkos in the first round.

To kick things off, Sam Stout kept the fight where he wanted it in his bout against Octagon debutant Per Eklund. Each landed some solid blows in the first half of the opening round but from there on it was “Hands of Steel” all the way. Stout successfully stuffed the majority of Eklund’s takedown attempts, usually following up with some solid strikes to the head for Eklund’s trouble. As the fight wore on, Eklund started to tire and was roundly booed by the crowd as his attempts to draw Stout into his guard were thwarted. A unanimous decision against Eklund was clear.

The second bout of the undercard saw a return to form for Alessio Sakara against the night's second Octagon newcomer, James Lee. The first of the night’s first round stoppages, Lee went for the takedown only for Sakara for keep himself upright and land some solid punches to the side of Lee’s head. Deemed to be failing to defend himself, the bout was stopped early in the second minute, with Sakara the winner by TKO. I was a little surprised to see the fight stopped so soon but the ref seemed to make the right call as Lee looked to have been nailed with one too many shots and wasn't intelligently defending himself.

Brits Paul Taylor and Paul Kelly engaged in a brawl which saw Kelly emerge as the only debutant winner of the night. Taylor had shown good standup skills in his two previous UFC bouts but it was on the ground where his weaknesses remain, a facet that Kelly exploited ably as he ground and pound his way to a points victory. Aside from a furious standup pace in the first couple of minutes of the opening stanza, Kelly showed excellent top control and use of elbows as Taylor found no way off his back and on the couple of occasions where Taylor secured the takedown, Kelly was able to quickly reverse. Kelly, from the Wolfslair stable from which Michael Bisping also originates, looked good value for the win but could face a stronger test against someone with a better guard as he left plenty of arms free during his assault. The competitiveness of the bout made this an early Fight of the Night candidate (which it went on to become).

After the British brawl, Northern Irishman Colin Robinson got a huge welcome for his bout against Dutchman Antoni Hardonk. I’ve felt that Hardonk has good potential in the heavyweight division, despite his losses, and am hoping that he'll rebound in a similar way to how Andre Arlovski did after his initial Octagon losses. In this bout it took only 17 seconds for Hardonk to emerge victorious as he followed some crippling low leg kicks with a couple of flush left jabs that left Robinson out. The partisan crowd initially booed the decision but the replays showed just how well Hardonk had connected with Big C’s chin and then were was appreciative applause for his skills by the time the announcement was made. It’s also worth noting that K-1 legend Ernesto Hoost was in Hardonk’s corner - as his trainer - and it was the highlight of my brother’s weekend to see him in the flesh.

Moving onto the main card and the pace of the action didn’t slacken - if anything it got even more wild.

After his knockout loss to Patrick Cote at UFC74 it was expected that Kendall Grove would get back on the winning track against Jorge Rivera. Rivera however had other ideas, showing relentless controlled aggression as he pressed Grove against the cage and pounded away until Grove's legs went from under him. Another first round TKO. A stunning success for Rivera who could find himself moved into contender status in the thin middleweight division, with a bout against Chris Leben having the potential for fireworks.

Jason Lambert had controlled the first round of his bout against Wilson Gouveia but was the victim of a brutal left hook during the second that earned Gouveia the knockout of the night bonus. As he pressed the action towards the cage, Lambert missed with his strikes, leaving himself wide open to the counter. He'll be frustrated with himself as the winner of this one was moving into a contender position. As it is it's Gouveia that's undefeated since his points loss to Keith Jardine on his Octagon debut. Although he showed little in this fight until the unanswered left hook, Gouveia will be primed for a top-ranked opponent. While a bout against Lyoto Machida wouldn't be box office, it's a possible future bout for June.

Before his fight with Jess Liaudin, Marcus Davis had warned his opponent that he was going to "punch a hole in his face" and he delivered on that promise early in the first round. Eating a series of leg kicks from Liaudin as the bout began, Davis looked calm and seemed to be waiting to begin his assault on his foe. Unexpectedly, this began with him showing off a new weapon in his arsenal - his kicking - before a looping left caught Liaudin on the side of the head and to the canvas. Davis followed up with some strikes to his downed opponent before the fight was stopped. With it Davis stretches his current tear through the lower ranks of the UFC welterweight division to six victories. Personally I'd like to see him fight Diego Sanchez although I don't think that's necessarily a good matchup from the UFC's perspective as it could lead to a third straight loss for Sanchez or bring Davis' unbeaten run to an end just prior to a higher profile matchup.

In my mind the heavyweight clash between Gabriel Gonzaga and Fabrizio Werdum was intriguing principally due to Werdum's new association with Chute Boxe. Werdum's famed for his BJJ but in his previous fights he's looked less than impressive in the striking department. What then could training with the famous muay thai practitioners do for his striking? We were to find out in significant fashion in the second round of this bout as Werdum used the thai clinch to repeatedly drill Gonzaga with knees to the body and chin. Watching the bout, I felt the fight go out of Gonzaga as he crumpled up against the cage and there are now question marks about his mental preparation for fights. Before Werdum's clinchwork, Gonzaga had been the aggressor and had delivered some crippling low leg kicks that left Werdum in trouble in the first. But where I had expected Gonzaga to bully Werdum against the cage and on the ground, he didn't deliver. So it's with great surprise that Werdum is now in line for a title shot against the winner of Sylvia-Nogueira.

He was expected to join Randy Couture in the elite ranks of those fighters who have held UFC championships in more than one weight division and at his third attempt at gaining the UFC lightweight championship, BJ Penn didn't disappoint. While Joe Stevenson showed plenty of heart, Penn dominated this bout from the uppercut that sent Stevenson to the canvas seconds into the bout, to the fight-ending rear naked choke near the end of the second round. Stevenson was outworked and it's disappointing that an elbow to his forehead opened up a deep cut from which blood was constantly pouring from midway through the first round. But the crowd - which might have all been granted Hawaiian citizenship given the welcome they afforded Penn - loved the dominating show that BJ was providing and went crazy as he won the bout. Afterwards, he didn't really look that keen about getting called back into the cage to face Sean Sherk, after having called him out, but that's the next fight for both of them. For Stevenson, I hope he heals up and gets back in the cage again soon. I think with time he could develop into a very good fighter and I think he'll force himself to another title shot again in a couple of years.

My first UFC event: 2 Days to UFC80!

Counting down to UFC 80: Rapid Fire at the Metro Radio Arena in Newcastle... it's now just two days away! This will be be my first MMA and UFC event that I've attended in person and I'm really excited to seeing it live.

I've been following MMA since my brother first showed me some fights from the UFC and Pride a couple of years ago. The first I can remember is the Tim Sylvia vs Frank Mir heavyweight title fight when Mir broke Sylvia's forearm in an armbar. At the time it looked completely crazy because nothing significant seemed to have happened but Herb Dean was right and Mir had broken Sylvia's arm - I'll always remember that 'pop' in the slow motion replays! Since then I've followed all of the UFC shows from the time second season of the Ultimate Fighter, along with the last Pride Openweight Tournament and last shows they produced before acquisition by Zuffa.

My predictions for UFC 80, which are often just a matter of percentages at the top level:

• I see Stevenson pulling a surprise - just a hunch, really as I think BJ will be conditioned but might get frustrated;
• Gonzaga will ground and pound Werdum with elbows - as would the outcome of his fight with Cro Cop if not for the early standup;
• Davis will get another submission victory, this time over Liaudin (and another submission bonus too maybe?);
• Da Spyder will be too leggy for Rivera and tangle him up on the ground for a submission;
• I have a feeling that Lambert is being underestimated against Gouveia and I think that he'll pull off the points win;
• Hardonk over Robinson as he's got more to offer across the board, though neither are exactly 'elite' fighters yet;
• Taylor over Kelly in the battle of the Brits. Taylor looked really good against Marcus Davis at UFC75 but was a bit overeager. He'll pull off the win here as long as he's not too shy with his kicks;
• Normally I'd pick the Octagon newcomer to debut with a loss but James Lee has already fought on some big shows and in the cage so I pick him to defeat the brittle Sakara through better groundwork;
• Stout and Eklund - Stout keeps it standing and gets the TKO, though not without some nervy moments beforehand.